Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Eagles as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.63 seconds per play.
Dallas Goedert has run a route on 88.2% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The leading projections forecast Dallas Goedert to notch 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Dallas Goedert has compiled a whopping 33.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among tight ends.
The Eagles O-line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Eagles are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
Dallas Goedert's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.2% to 71.8%.