Dallas Goedert Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-349).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +225 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +225.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 138.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 66.0 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Dallas Goedert has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% this year, which places him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Dallas Goedert has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (19.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Dallas Goedert's 35.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 43.8.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the least passing touchdowns in football to tight ends: 0.00 per game this year.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

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