Dak Prescott TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Dak Prescott TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-194/+178).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -233 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +178.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (63.4% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Cowboys.
The projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 127.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys this year (a mere 51.5 per game on average).
In registering a colossal 39.2 pass attempts per game this year, Dak Prescott slots in among the top QBs in the NFL (88th percentile) for this stat.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded the 9th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.75 per game this year.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Indianapolis Colts, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 28.6 per game) this year.

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