Dak Prescott TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

TD Passes

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Dak Prescott TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.3% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 66.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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