Dak Prescott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Dak Prescott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.53 seconds per play.
While Dak Prescott has accounted for 6.0% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much more involved in Dallas's ground game in this week's contest at 12.5%.
Dak Prescott has been among the best quarterbacks in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging an exceptional 5.45 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast Dak Prescott to earn 3.2 carries in this game, on average: the 9th-fewest out of all QBs.
Since the start of last season, the weak San Francisco 49ers run defense has allowed a monstrous 3.53 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 31st-worst rate in the league.
When it comes to the safeties' role in stopping the run, San Francisco's safety corps has been great this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the league.

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