Dak Prescott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Dak Prescott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.9% run rate.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
The projections expect Dak Prescott to be a much bigger part of his team's run game in this contest (12.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.9% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Patriots defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, yielding just 4.06 yards-per-carry.
As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New England's unit has been tremendous since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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