Dak Prescott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 11:36 PM EST

Analysis

Dak Prescott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys rank as the 9th-most run-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 43.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 137.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Dak Prescott to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (14.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.5% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Dak Prescott to accumulate 4.2 carries in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
Dak Prescott's ground efficiency (4.25 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (23rd percentile among QBs).
Opposing squads have rushed for the least yards in the league (just 78 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the best unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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