Dak Prescott Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 12:13 AM EST

Analysis

Dak Prescott Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+422/-937).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +438 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +422.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 66.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Dak Prescott to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game near the end zone this week (23.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.5% in games he has played).
The Dallas Cowboys O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 8th-least run-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 40.7% red zone run rate.
Opposing squads have run for the 5th-least TDs in the NFL (0.65 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

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