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Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott Completions
Player Prop Week 1

Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-106/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -122.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 134.7 total plays run: the most among all games this week.

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Cowboys last year (a staggering 60.4 per game on average).

The model projects Dak Prescott to throw 37.0 passes in this game, on balance: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.

The Dallas Cowboys O-line profiles as the 5th-best in football last year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.1 per game) last year.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the lowest clip in the NFL versus the Cleveland Browns defense last year (62.8% Adjusted Completion%).

The Cleveland Browns linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in football last year in covering pass-catchers.

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