Curtis Samuel Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 3:28 PM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-125/-106).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders rank as the 3rd-most run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 40.9% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 26.90 seconds per play.
The Commanders are willing to include receivers in their run game, and Curtis Samuel has garnered 2.9% of carries since the start of last season (97th percentile).
Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-most yards in the league (130 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive ends profile as the 2nd-worst DE corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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