Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 12, 2024 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Curtis Samuel has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 16.6% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 75th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Curtis Samuel rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football, hauling in an excellent 73.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 90th percentile among wideouts.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.4%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (70.4%).

Favors Under

The model projects this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.