Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 12.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
With a fantastic 4.3 adjusted catches per game (77th percentile) this year, Curtis Samuel rates among the top WRs in the NFL in the NFL.

Favors Under

Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.
Curtis Samuel has run fewer routes this season (60.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (81.5%).
The Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

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