Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 8:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +136 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 13.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 70.3% of their plays: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Curtis Samuel's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 74.2% to 78.6%.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Washington Commanders.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.1 per game) this year.
Curtis Samuel has run fewer routes this year (60.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (81.5%).
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (56.6%) versus WRs this year (56.6%).
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Dallas's collection of LBs has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.

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