Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
Curtis Samuel has been among the best possession receivers in the league, completing a stellar 73.8% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 87th percentile among WRs.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks profile as the 6th-worst collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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