Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+104/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling out backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to accumulate 7.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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