Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-180/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to notch 7.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
Curtis Samuel has been a more important option in his team's pass game this year (22.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (4.8%).
Curtis Samuel has been among the best WRs in the game this year, averaging a stellar 6.3 receptions per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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