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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-147/+113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +116 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +113.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.30 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to be a more integral piece of his team's passing attack this week (16.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.8% in games he has played).

The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.

The Washington Commanders have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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