Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Curtis Samuel has been much more involved in his team's pass attack this year (19.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (4.8%).
Curtis Samuel has been among the leading WRs in the game this year, averaging a stellar 4.4 receptions per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in football since the start of last season.

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