Curtis Samuel Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 7:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Curtis Samuel has been much more involved in his offense's passing offense this season (20.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (4.8%).
Curtis Samuel has been among the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an impressive 4.7 receptions per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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