Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
Curtis Samuel has been among the best possession receivers in the league, completing a stellar 73.8% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 87th percentile among WRs.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.93 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-most in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks profile as the 6th-worst collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Curtis Samuel has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in football, averaging a lowly 7.56 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 25th percentile among wideouts
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 7.28 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in football.