Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 26.90 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack this week (11.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.8% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in football (75.7%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (75.7%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has displayed poor efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, yielding 9.21 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 11th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in football.
Curtis Samuel has been responsible for a meager 0.6% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: a lowly 14th percentile among WRs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.