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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans

Curtis Samuel Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+271/-457).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +274 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +271.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 67.0 plays per game.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to be a more important option in his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (24.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (18.2% in games he has played).

Curtis Samuel's 41.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 7.6.

Curtis Samuel grades out in the 91st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.50 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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