Craig Reynolds Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Craig Reynolds

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM EST

Analysis

Craig Reynolds Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-most run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.6% run rate.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
Craig Reynolds has been among the best running backs in football at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.70 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 88th percentile.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Craig Reynolds has been a much smaller part of his offense's run game this season (17.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (39.7%).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, conceding just 4.16 yards-per-carry.
The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles project as the best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.