Courtland Sutton Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 4:02 PM EST

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+239/-245).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 61.8% red zone pass rate.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Courtland Sutton has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which places him in the 90th percentile when it comes to WRs.
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored this week, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.
The 7th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Broncos this year (only 53.5 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.0 per game) this year.
Courtland Sutton has put up quite a few less air yards this season (64.0 per game) than he did last season (98.0 per game).
Courtland Sutton's 49.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 58.2.