Courtland Sutton Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-280).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Broncos are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (61.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Broncos.
As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 27.85 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Broncos to be the 6th-quickest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
The 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (34.1 per game) since the start of last season.

Favors Under

While Courtland Sutton has received 26.3% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Denver's passing offense near the goal line in this week's game at 19.8%.
Courtland Sutton's 55.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a meaningful regression in his receiving ability over last season's 61.6% mark.

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