Courtland Sutton Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 14, 2026 10:37 PM EST

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-285).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Broncos to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 61.1% red zone pass rate.
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Denver Broncos last year (a staggering 59.7 per game on average).
Courtland Sutton has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.4% last year, which ranks him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.
Last year, the daunting Chiefs defense has conceded a measly 0.59 passing touchdowns per game to opposing WRs: the 5th-smallest rate in football.

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