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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Broncos are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their typical game plan.

The Broncos have been the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 65.6% pass rate.

The projections expect the Broncos offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.65 seconds per snap.

This week, Courtland Sutton is expected by the projection model to rank in the 88th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.8 targets.

Courtland Sutton places in the 90th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 66.7 mark this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.5 per game) since the start of last season.

Courtland Sutton's 48.8% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a material decline in his receiving ability over last season's 68.4% figure.

The Jets linebackers rank as the best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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