Courtland Sutton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-136/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Courtland Sutton has run a route on 94.4% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accumulate 6.4 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton has been among the best WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.2 receptions per game while checking in at the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Broncos are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.

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