Courtland Sutton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Denver Broncos · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is implied by the Broncos being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
Courtland Sutton has run a route on 91.8% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
The predictive model expects Courtland Sutton to total 7.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Denver Broncos ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

With a 58.6% rate of passing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-least pass-focused team in the league has been the Denver Broncos.
Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to run the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.

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