Courtland Sutton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Courtland Sutton has run a route on 94.8% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accrue 7.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Courtland Sutton has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, completing just 60.2% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 13th percentile among WRs
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.