Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+106/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Broncos are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 27.85 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Broncos to be the 6th-quickest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
The 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (34.1 per game) since the start of last season.
With an impressive 91.7% Route% (94th percentile) since the start of last season, Courtland Sutton places as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in the NFL.

Favors Under

Courtland Sutton's 55.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a meaningful regression in his receiving ability over last season's 61.6% mark.
Courtland Sutton's receiving efficiency has declined this season, averaging a measly 6.92 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.40 rate last season.
With a subpar 0.15 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (22nd percentile) since the start of last season, Courtland Sutton rates among the leading WRs in the game in the league in the open field.
The 49ers linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.