Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 14, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (+101/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 42.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Broncos to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Denver Broncos last year (a staggering 59.7 per game on average).
Courtland Sutton has run a route on 92.3% of his team's passing plays last year, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
In this contest, Courtland Sutton is predicted by the projections to place in the 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.1 targets.

Favors Under

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.
With a bad 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) last year, Courtland Sutton stands among the top wide receivers in the game in football in picking up extra yardage.