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Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 6

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+169/-241).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Courtland Sutton has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 32.1% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.

Courtland Sutton has put up many more air yards this season (123.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).

Courtland Sutton's 70.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 54.2.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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