Courtland Sutton Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Courtland Sutton

NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+148/-205).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Courtland Sutton has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 22.2% this year, which ranks him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton has totaled a monstrous 99.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton's 74.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 54.2.
Courtland Sutton's possession skills have improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 59.6% to 66.8%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.4 plays per game.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed the 3rd-least TDs through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.70 per game since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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