Courtland Sutton Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Courtland Sutton

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Courtland Sutton Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+229/-360).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -347 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -360.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Courtland Sutton has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 28.1% this year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
Courtland Sutton has accumulated many more air yards this year (101.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).
Courtland Sutton's 58.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 88th percentile for wideouts.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (72%) versus wide receivers this year (72.0%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Courtland Sutton's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 59.6% to 56.2%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.