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Corey Davis

Corey Davis Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Corey Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+159/-219).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -178 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +159.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.9% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • The Seattle Seahawks linebackers profile as the 4th-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
  • The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 5th-least in football.
  • Corey Davis's 37.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 53.1.
  • The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • Corey Davis's receiving performance has diminished this season, compiling a mere 2.6 yards per game compared to 3.8 last season.
  • Corey Davis has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league, completing just 57.8% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 6th percentile among WRs

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