Corey Davis Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Corey Davis

NFL · Player Props

Corey Davis

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Jets · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Corey Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+159/-219).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -178 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +159.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers profile as the 4th-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 5th-least in football.
Corey Davis's 37.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 53.1.
The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Corey Davis's receiving performance has diminished this season, compiling a mere 2.6 yards per game compared to 3.8 last season.
Corey Davis has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league, completing just 57.8% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 6th percentile among WRs

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