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Corey Davis

Corey Davis Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Corey Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

Corey Davis's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 57.4% to 62.4%.

The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The New York Jets O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Corey Davis's 35.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 53.1.

The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Corey Davis's receiving talent has worsened this season, totaling a measly 2.7 yards per game compared to 3.8 last season.

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