My Account Log Out

reorder

Corey Davis

Corey Davis Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Corey Davis Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+155/-214).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -190 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.

Corey Davis's possession skills have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 57.4% to 61.8%.

The New York Jets O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Corey Davis's 38.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 53.1.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have utilized play action on a mere 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

More Corey Davis Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™