Corey Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Corey Davis

NFL · Player Props

Corey Davis

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Corey Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Corey Davis's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 57.4% to 62.4%.
Corey Davis's pass-catching efficiency has been refined this year, notching 10.19 yards-per-target vs a measly 8.44 figure last year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Corey Davis has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (95.0 per game).
Corey Davis's 35.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 53.1.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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