Corey Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Corey Davis

NFL · Player Props

Corey Davis

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Corey Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to use backup QB Mike White in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 9th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Corey Davis has posted quite a few less air yards this season (65.0 per game) than he did last season (95.0 per game).
Corey Davis's 38.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 53.1.
Corey Davis has totaled quite a few less receiving yards per game (42.0) this season than he did last season (55.0).
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have utilized play action on a mere 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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