Corey Davis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Corey Davis

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Corey Davis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-114/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Corey Davis has put up a colossal 95.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
Corey Davis's 53.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 89th percentile for wide receivers.
Corey Davis has been among the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 55.0 yards per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
Corey Davis has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, hauling in just 57.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 11th percentile among wideouts
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.