Corey Davis Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Corey Davis

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Corey Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+291/-510).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +319 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +291.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Corey Davis has compiled a colossal 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Corey Davis's 51.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 82nd percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 10th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wideouts: 0.84 per game since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have used play action on a lowly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.