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Corey Davis

Corey Davis Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Corey Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+310/-561).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +357 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +310.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.

Corey Davis has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.3% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile among WRs.

Corey Davis's possession skills have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 57.4% to 61.8%.

The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 6th-most passing TDs in the NFL to wideouts: 1.00 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Corey Davis has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (95.0 per game).

Corey Davis's 38.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 53.1.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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