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Corey Davis

Corey Davis Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets

Corey Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+293/-514).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +306 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +293.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 9th-most in the league.

Corey Davis's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 57.4% to 62.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Corey Davis has posted quite a few less air yards this season (65.0 per game) than he did last season (95.0 per game).

Corey Davis's 38.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 53.1.

The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have utilized play action on a mere 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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