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Corey Davis Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+267/-447).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +312 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +267.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.Corey Davis has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.9% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.Corey Davis has put up a colossal 95.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among wide receivers.Corey Davis's 53.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 89th percentile for wide receivers.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.Corey Davis has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, hauling in just 57.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 11th percentile among wideoutsThe Baltimore Ravens pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.5%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (63.5%).The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.
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