Cordarrelle Patterson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Cordarrelle Patterson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 11, 2022 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

Cordarrelle Patterson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -167 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 7th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 44.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.7 plays per game.
Cordarrelle Patterson's 11.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 23.2.
Cordarrelle Patterson's pass-catching performance diminished this season, notching just 1.0 yards per game compared to 3.3 last season.