Cordarrelle Patterson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Cordarrelle Patterson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Cordarrelle Patterson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.7 plays per game.
Cordarrelle Patterson has accrued far fewer air yards this season (3.0 per game) than he did last season (16.0 per game).
Cordarrelle Patterson's 12.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 23.2.