Cordarrelle Patterson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Cordarrelle Patterson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Cordarrelle Patterson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+390/-816).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +411 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +390.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Cordarrelle Patterson has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 13.8% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Cordarrelle Patterson has accrued a colossal 16.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among running backs.
Cordarrelle Patterson's 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 97th percentile for running backs.

Favors Under

The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 58.5 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (71.9%) versus running backs since the start of last season (71.9%).
The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 4th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.