Connor Heyward Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Connor Heyward

NFL · Player Props

Connor Heyward

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Touchdowns

New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Connor Heyward Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1233/-1329).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Raiders as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Raiders to be the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.00 seconds per play.
Since the start of last season, the porous Patriots defense has yielded a massive 72.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

As it relates to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Las Vegas Raiders ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year.
The Patriots defense has given up the fewest receiving touchdowns in football to TEs: 0.00 per game this year.
The Patriots linebackers grade out as the 4th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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