Connor Heyward Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Connor Heyward

NFL · Player Props

Connor Heyward

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Touchdowns

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Connor Heyward Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1200/-1850).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Raiders to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 3rd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
The Chiefs pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.6%) to TEs since the start of last season (85.6%).

Favors Under

The Raiders have called the 4th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 53.0 plays per game.
The Raiders offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Chiefs defense has allowed the 3rd-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.30 per game since the start of last season.

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